After six consecutive post-time favorites failing to win the Run for the Roses Journalism the 3-1 morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby will need to break the trend.
Actually, the last four Kentucky Derby winners—Mandaloun (26-1 in 2021), Rich Strike (80-1 in 2022) Mage (15-1 in 2023) and My stik Dan (18-1 in 2024)—went into the gate with double-digit odds.
(After Medina Spirit, who were favored by 12-1 odds, crossed the finish line first Mandaloun won by disqualification.)
This pattern comes after six consecutive post-time favorites won the Kentucky Derby between 2013 and 2018.
In an attempt to explain the Kentucky Derby’s randomness Flying Mohawk trainer Whit Beckman stated Once the gates open, there are a thousand and one things that can go wrong You need a horse that can handle the distance and gets the trip but you don’t necessarily need the best horse to win the race.
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At 5-1 he is the second pick in the morning line, and trainer Bill Mott is considering giving him a second Kentucky Derby win.
“This year, I believe we have the best chance we’ve likely ever had Mott stated.
Last October at Churchill Downs Sovereignty won the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes which also featured Kentucky Derby candidates Tiztastic and Sandman. Coming into the Run for the Roses Sovereignty finished second in the Florida Derby.
Sovereignty is expected to charge late in the Kentucky Derby after making a powerful late run in the Florida Derby.
“We always think those horses will go farther because he’s been a deep closer Mott remarked That isn’t always the case. They occasionally close nicely after a mile and a quarter but not always after a mile and an eighth.
“Hopefully it won’t be the case with him. Even though they haven’t shown it yet I hope he can continue to maintain his run. … It must be completed by the first Saturday in May.
Burnham Square is expected to be late just like Sovereignty who came back from last place to win the Blue Grass.
According to trainer Ian Wilkes, “I believe he matches up well Additionally I believe that a mile and a quarter is within my wheelhouse.
Brian Hernandez Jr., who won the Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan last year, will ride Burnham Square.
A consistent evolution of Beyer Speed Figures since his debut race—58, 83, 86, 90, 91, and 96 in the Blue Grass—will further appeal to his admirers.
“He’s improving every time Wilkes remarked Assembling the foundation and continuing to construct for the Derby.
It took one defection for Baeza to qualify for the Kentucky Derby And he understood So be careful.
After breaking his maiden on February 14 the late-developing horse briefly led the Santa Anita Derby before placing third, three-quarters of a length behind Journalism.
Trainer John Shirreffs remarked I thought he ran a remarkable race He went wide for the most part He was dragging in a little when he round the corner into the stretch. After switching leads, he started to fly again It was a great race even if he is green and knows he can go better.
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