Gold will cross 1.5 lakhs
Know the whole secret
Geopolitical tensions have once again escalated – this time between Israel and Iran – with global financial markets entering a period of extreme uncertainty. Amid this chaos, gold has once again emerged as a “safe haven” asset for investors around the world. Analysts now predict that gold prices in India could rise above ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams if the current situation worsens.
Israel’s attack on Iran: A time bomb for Crude oil supplies
In a bold and controversial move, Israel has launched airstrikes on Iran – an action that has sent shockwaves across the global diplomatic and financial landscape. Iran is not only a major player in the Middle East; it is also one of the world’s top oil exporters.
As tensions rise, fears are growing of disruptions to oil supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial chokepoint through which 20% of global oil passes. If Iran retaliates by blocking oil shipments or launching attacks, crude oil prices could skyrocket.
Rising Crude oil prices rising inflation falling currency
The surge in oil prices has a direct impact on inflation across the world. In countries like India that import a lot of crude oil, it increases fuel costs, increases transportation prices and ultimately makes goods and services more expensive.
As inflation rises, the purchasing power of currencies weakens. In such situations, central banks may hesitate to raise interest rates aggressively due to an economic slowdown. This makes traditional investment instruments such as bonds and stocks less attractive, leading to a trend towards assets such as gold globally.
Investor psychology: Fear drives gold buying
The market doesn’t like uncertainty. Whether it’s war, economic instability or political upheaval – investors want to park their money in a safe place when the future seems unpredictable. Historically, gold has served as that safe zone.
With mixed signals being sent by central banks amid volatility in equity markets around the world, institutional and retail investors alike are increasing their gold investments. Demand is also rising in the form of ETF (exchange-traded funds) and physical gold purchases.
The result? There will be increased pressure on gold prices, which could break existing records.
Rupee devaluation: A hidden trigger in India’s gold market
Let’s not forget one important element: India imports almost all of its gold. Rising oil prices and a weakening economy put pressure on the Indian rupee, making gold imports more expensive. This devaluation of the currency further increases the price surge.
Even if gold prices remain stable at the international level, the weakening of the rupee alone can increase gold prices significantly at the domestic level.
For example:
If international gold remains at $2,400 per ounce, and
USD/INR rises from 83 to 86,
then gold prices in India may rise without any change in global rates.
Historical trend: Gold is thriving even in the global crisis
Let’s look at some data points:
2008 global recession: Gold price jumped 25% in a year.
Covid-19 pandemic (2020): Gold crossed ₹56,000 per 10 gm.
Russia-Ukraine war (2022): Prices inched closer to ₹60,000.
Now with the Israel-Iran conflict and oil at the centre of it, gold price could see a similar or even bigger jump. Analysts predict that if oil touches $150 a barrel and the conflict drags on, gold in India could touch ₹1.5 lakh per 10 gm within a year.
Domestic demand booms during uncertainty
Gold is not just an investment tool in India – it is part of the culture. During uncertain times, Indians buy more gold for safety. Jewelers and bullion traders have reported a surge in physical demand even as prices have risen in the last week.
This local demand puts further pressure on prices, especially during the wedding and festival season.
What should investors do now?
If you are an investor or someone holding gold, here are some tips:
Don’t panic buy: Gold may rise, but entering at the peak can be risky.
Diversify: Consider gold ETFs or sovereign gold bonds instead of physical gold.
Keep a close eye on global news: Geopolitical developments can change prices quickly.
Keep an eye on rupee movements: Currency trends may indicate future price rises.
Conclusion: The ₹1.5 Lakh Possibility Is Real
While a price of Rs 1.5 lakh per 10 gram may sound exorbitant, it is not impossible. A prolonged Israel-Iran conflict, disruptions in oil supplies, rising inflation, a falling rupee and panic-driven investment patterns could push gold to historic highs.
In a volatile world, gold shines brightest when everything else fades. Right now, all eyes are on the Middle East – but smart investors are already placing their bets in gold.
Know how Israel’s attack on Iran, disruption in oil exports and inflation can push gold prices above ₹1.5 lakh in India. Complete analysis of market impact and investor outlook.
